Hold off on buying your Tesla

[Dirty Rooster]

Originally Posted by green van man

...
When all the technology goes Pete tong, it's us old farts that can make things will survive.

I knew a dippy young woman who believed the technopalyspe was imminent : wanted me to make her a crossbow ... I persuaded her otherwise.

[volvoid]

no-one buys teslas, they lots of dosh, all are leased via ones business with free elektikery charging at teslas own points

[volvoid]

I am holding off buying any expensive new motor until they can legally drive themselves. I just want to sit in the back, read the paper, have a wee dram and nod off.

[phil1968]

I know they're the future & appreciate all the technology incorporated, but I find the styling of Teslas a bit anonymous. If I were spending upward of £50k I'd want something that looked considerably more special, but that's just my humble opinion.

[I-S]

So, much has happened since this thread started.

Tesla today reported their Q2 results, and have hit 5k vehicles per week for Model 3 production, combined with 2k Model S/X simultaneously. They produced over 53000 vehicles in total in the quarter, and looking like ~65000+ for Q3. They have reaffirmed guidance that they will be profitable in Q3 and Q4.

Share price has reached $360, up from $280 in mid-may.

During July watch for the Model 3 to become one of the top 20 selling cars in the USA.

A few other notes:

Many stories are circulating about how EVs from traditional car makers will "crush" Tesla. This isn't going to happen for one key reason, which is nothing to do with the cars themselves. The Jaguar I-Pace looks like an excellent vehicle. The Mercedes EQC is promising, as is the Audi E-tron.

No, the problem is not the vehicles - it's getting one.

The Jaguar I-Pace is being produced by contract manufacturer Magna Steyr in Austria. The Magna factory has a 200k per year production capacity, and that is spread across the BMW 5 series, Mercedes G class, Jaguar E-Pace and Jaguar I-Pace. Jaguar may be planning to sell around 20000 - 25000 I-Pace per year, but demand will be much higher. Jaguar has to take what it can in terms of production capacity and battery supplies - Tesla is in control of its own destiny.

This same problem is affecting Kia Hyundai - their EV models are well engineered (significantly better than the Nissan Leaf that I have), but they are simply not available. They can not supply anything like the demand. Their new Kona EV is extremely well priced and capable, but is already sold out 2 years ahead in Norway.

Within the next two years I think only Mercedes and VW group are likely to be able to produce anything like a serious volume of EVs - Mercedes have been smart enough to copy Tesla (who they used to part-own) and build a battery factory, while VW have put their money where their mouth is and have nearly $50bn in contracts for battery supply (probably because they got burned so badly on Dieselgate).

As it stands, Tesla is the only serious EV manufacturer that is putting out any kind of volume (the new Nissan Leaf has a very significant design fault which likely has squandered any kind of lead they had in the market), and they still have 420,000 pre-orders for Model 3s to fulfill.

Originally Posted by phil1968

I find the styling of Teslas a bit anonymous

Actually by design - Tesla didn't want to make the car too weird and unusual looking because they were releasing a car into a market that was really struggling to accept the idea of EVs in 2012 (Yes, the Model S has been on sale for over 6 years - that's how far behind every one else has been, since the I-Pace is the first that can match it) so they went very conservative with the design.

Personally I find the X rather ungainly (in a similar manner to the 5 series GT), I like the facelifted S, but the 3 is a little challenging (I saw quite a few over the past few weeks in the USA). The 3 is very low in the front and in the metal seems to have an odd discontinuity between bonnet and the glasshouse, with the latter seeming slightly "overinflated" over the metal.

Come on Volvo, where is the electric V60?

[Welton]

Just wanted to thank I-S for his intelligent and knowledgeable posts on this subject, I have learnt things that I had no idea about and to me the whole thing makes a lot more sense.

The 'financial people' trying to discredit the company because they got their predictions wrong and the 'build your own' batteries ethos of Tesla have been most interesting.

[Harvey1512]

Totally agree Welton, his posts have been an education.

I have seen a few Tesla S models. They turn my head each time, I want one

[Grimble]

My son is now a good few months into his ownership and still loves it. There have been a few small niggles, nearly all of a software nature but he has been able to call them directly and get it all sorted 'wirelessly' so to speak.
He was regularly doing a Faslane to London journey (work/home) and found the car extremely capable on the motorways, needing just a 'fast' charge at one of the services to complete the journey. He would need to stop anyway for a brew and a pee.
Given that the electricity was free, but he was still getting a mileage allowance, he was making over £200 per journey.
I think probably now is the best time to own an electric car. It wont be long before HM Treasury starts to notice the drop off in their extortionate fuel duty and work out a way to tax electric cars. Cutting their cloth to suit their means is a forbidden phrase in politics.

[I-S]

Originally Posted by Grimble

It wont be long before HM Treasury starts to notice the drop off in their extortionate fuel duty and work out a way to tax electric cars. Cutting their cloth to suit their means is a forbidden phrase in politics.

Ahhh, haven't you figured it out yet?

Extensive ANPR networks and "Smart" motorways.

The government will move to road pricing. Charging depending on the road you're using, time of day and how busy it is. Look for £1 per mile along a congested segment of the M25 at peak time. Expect 1p per mile at midnight on a deserted road.

This will apply to ALL vehicles, not just EV.

However, ICE vehicles will suffer the triple whammy of increasing fuel duty (due to declining revenue, but branded as an environmental initiative), increasing fuel cost (as once oil usage begins to decline and there is little ROI on "investments" in oil exploration, extraction and refining then the unit cost will begin to increase as the fixed costs are spread over fewer units of production) AND road pricing. Maybe a quadruple whammy as the various other bits of infrastructure (servicing, oils and lubricants, petrol stations) become fewer and further between.

I think probably now is the best time to own an electric car

Interesting comment.

Yes and no.

If you can afford to get into a Tesla Model S, especially one that has free supercharger access then that's probably true.

If you can't then the compromises that come with most other EVs are off-putting to most people.

But here's a thought, even with a compromised, short-ranged EV (ie my Leaf). A couple of months ago I went down to my mum's house, which is a ~320 mile round trip. 160 down on friday, 160 back up on the sunday. Husband was staying home, so I had the choice of taking the Leaf or the V70.

I chose the Leaf.

On the way down the driving took 4 hours due to traffic, and I stopped for two charges (17 mins at stafford, 14 mins at Frankley). 31 minutes charging, and both chargers were on Free Vend (thank ecotricity for their unreliable comms hardware :-)). On the way back up driving took 3 1/2 hours due to traffic and leaving the motorway at stafford and heading through congleton, wilmslow and cheadle. Stopped for 19 mins at Hilton Park and 21 minutes in congleton to charge, again both free. Total of 71 minutes of charging, but I'd have stopped for 30 mins for pee/coffee anyway, so 41 minutes of extra time taken.

Thanks to free charging, I saved over £50 of diesel for doing the same journey in the V70.

£50 saving for 41 minutes of my time, equates (close enough) to being paid £75 per hour after tax; A rate of pay that the vast majority of people in this country would jump at.

If I'd had to pay full price for 3 of those charges (congleton is a free charger anyway) then I'd have paid around £10 for the use of the chargers - still a very decent saving.

And yes, I didn't count charging at my mum's (she has a 4kWp solar system on 50p/kWh FIT, so she was paid to charge the car in effect), nor charging the car at my workplace before the journey (£1 paid for 4 hours charging - have to pay to satisfy BIK, until the government actually puts into law the announced non-BIK status of workplace charging announced last autumn to take effect from april 6th this year).

The other reason I chose the Leaf is that since getting it, the D5 seems twice as loud and 10 times as annoying as it used to. On a motorway journey it's constantly there, rwarrwarrwarrwarrwarrwarrwarrwar...

As charging networks become more extensive they will no longer be supported by grants etc and the fees will increase, but competition should also keep them in check. My gut feeling is that they will settle out at about 2x the price of domestic electricity (so at current prices, 25-30p/kWh for rapid chargers) which is about what ecotricity are currently charging (pun partially intended).

However, should you actually be able to get one, there are interesting other EVs coming. Hyundai Kona EV is less than £30k list price even in high spec, with a 64kWh battery (~250 mile real world range), 150kW motor (204PS - with no gearchanges, kickdown, lag etc, EVs feel swifter than equivalently powerful ICE cars do) etc. These cars offer a step change in performance over earlier generation cars (and remember, the Leaf first came out in 2011, and got updated battery chemistry (same capacity, more robust) in 2013 - it's an old car now).

And finally, a thought that amuses me.

My brother and his wife also own a Nissan Leaf (it's their only car, they work in central London and live within the M25). Recently they had their first child. In three or four years time when playing with toy cars, is he going to go "brrruuuuummmmmm", or "whhhhhhoooooooosssshhhh"?

To his generation ICE vehicles will seem like steam trains do to baby boomers.

[Grimble]

Of course the ANPR infesting the 'smart' motorways have a purpose for revenue collection in the future, will be a bit harder to enforce on many other roads, but I agree and do believe thats their ultimate aim.

However, even now its easy enough to dodge them by overtaking a truck at the appropriate point, if road pricing is enforced, then it will be even more of an incentive to those less honest (or just less wealthy) get some false number plates.

PS I love steam engines, they have a mechanical soul that no item of electronics, no matter how clever, will ever attain.